Katz A, Bogdanovic B, Ekuma O, Soodeen RA, Chateau D, Burnett C. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 2009.

This project will provide scenarios that incorporate different assumptions that have an impact on the demand for physicians in four key areas identified by Manitoba Health: Family Medicine, Pediatrics, General Surgery and Orthopedic Surgery. Two sets of models will be developed: (1) models that will project the service needs of the population given various characteristics, e.g., age, sex, socioeconomic status, comorbidities; (2) models that will project the number of services that can be provided by the physician workforce given their characteristics, e.g., age, sex, number of years since graduation, average workloads, etc. MCHP will use historical data housed in the Population Health Research Data Repository to develop and test these models. The output of the project will not be a definitive answer to the question: "How many physicians are needed in Manitoba?" but will provide tools that can be used by Manitoba Health and potentially other organizations, such as the University of Manitoba's Faculty of Medicine to project supply and demand under different conditions.

Links:

• Full Report (PDF)
  Summary (PDF)
  

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A full list of MCHP Deliverables is available online.