Doupe M, Fransoo R, Chateau D, Dik N, Burchill C, Soodeen R-A, Bozat-Emre S, Guenette W. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 2011.

Health regions in Manitoba are at various stages of population aging, and projected growth in the number of 75+ year-olds, the predominant personal care home (PCH) users, will vary tremendously across the province. The analyses in this report indicate PCH use will increase modestly in Manitoba until about 2020/21. Shortly after this time Baby Boomers will reach age 75 and by 2030/31, Manitoba may need 29.1% more PCH beds to cope with increasing older adult numbers. Manitoba has expanded its continuum of older adult care with supportive housing provided as an alternate to PCH use. This report provides a tool (LTCPEXP) for allocating people to these different areas. Using RAI-HC© data from Winnipeg, this tool correctly identifies, on average, 76.0% of home care, supportive housing, and PCH users. Use of this tool is important for ensuring that supportive housing fulfills its role as an alternate to PCH use, so people receive the best type of care to match their needs. Using a process called cluster analysis, this research creates a tool (LofCEXP) for describing PCH residents' needs, at least in the WRHA. By combining this strategy with provincial PCH projections, some evidence is also provided to help planners prepare for the future.

Links:

• Full Report (PDF)
  Summary (PDF)
  Media Release (PDF)
  

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