Garland A, Chateau D, Marrie RA, Wunsch H, Yogendran M, Soodeen RA. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, 2021.

Critically ill people are cared for in hospital intensive care units. Many die in hospital, and many who survive experience long-term problems. If we could identify people at high risk of developing critical illness before it occurs, we might be able to delay or prevent it from happening, allowing them to remain healthy in the community. This study aimed to identify adult Manitobans with a high probability of developing critical illness in the near future. The research team applied advanced statistical methods to the data in the Manitoba Population Research Data Repository at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy. The results showed that instead of the stated goal of identifying people with at least a 1 in 3 chance of developing critical illness, the team was only able to identify people with at least a 1 in 20 chance. However, additional study may be warranted to assess the value of alerting primary care providers to such individuals on their patient rosters. Also, the finding that frail people are much more likely to develop critical illness suggests that it might be valuable to have physicians routinely measure frailty in the people they care for.

Links:

• Full Report (PDF)
  

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