Concept: Population Estimates and Comparison of Data Sources

Introduction

The following tables represent population estimates for the province of Manitoba by age and gender, for the specific dates presented.

The data sources include:

• Manitoba Health Services Commission (MHSC) Annual Statistics reports,
  
• Manitoba Health (MH) Registration snapshots (June and December),
  
• the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy Research Registry (MCHP RR) and
  
• Statistics Canada Canadian Census.

NOTE: Columns with percentages report the % the data source is larger than the Census.

Links to Tables of Population Estimates


• Table 1 - 1986 Population Estimates
  
• Table 2 - 1991 Population Estimates
  
• Table 3 - 1996 Population Estimates
  
• Table 4 - 2001 Population Estimates
  
• Table 5 - 2006 Population Estimates
  
• Table 6 - 0-14 Age Group Population Estimates - Comparison By Census Years - 1986 to 2006
  
• Table 7 - Total Population Estimates - Comparison By Census Years - 1986 to 2006

Table 1: 1986 Population Estimates (All as of June 1, 1986)

Age group	Source	Male	% Male	Female	% Female	Overall	% Overall
0-14	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	128756 128005 125924 120500	6.9 6.2 4.5 .	121954 121367 119517 114500	6.5 6.0 4.4 .	250710 249372 245441 235000	6.7 6.1 4.4 .
15-24	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	95515 95237 88107 88750	7.6 7.3 -0.7 .	93762 93650 86245 86965	7.8 7.7 -0.8 .	189277 188887 174352 175715	7.7 7.5 -0.8 .
25-34	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	97985 97756 96240 90070	8.8 8.5 6.8 .	95899 95742 94202 90200	6.3 6.1 4.4 .	193884 193498 190442 180270	7.6 7.3 5.6 .
35-44	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	73240 73232 72575 69215	5.8 5.8 4.8 .	72028 72042 71025 69355	3.9 3.9 2.4 .	145268 145274 143600 138370	5.0 5.0 3.8 .
45-54	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	51273 51182 50813 48865	4.9 4.7 4.0 .	50700 50636 50130 48910	3.7 3.5 2.5 .	101973 101818 100943 97775	4.3 4.1 3.2 .
55-64	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	47565 47631 47284 46130	3.1 3.3 2.5 .	51919 51998 51748 50830	2.1 2.3 1.8 .	99484 99629 99032 96960	2.6 2.8 2.1 .
65+	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	57825 58136 57692 54110	6.9 7.4 6.6 .	77164 77521 77280 70235	9.9 10.4 10.0 .	134989 135657 134972 124345	8.7 9.1 8.5 .
Total	MHSC 86-87 MH Dec-86 MCHP RR Census	552159 551179 538635 517600	6.7 6.5 4.1 .	563426 562956 550147 530785	6.1 6.1 3.6 .	1115585 1114135 1088782 1048125	6.4 6.3 3.9 .


Note:


• MHSC 86-87 data is available in the Annual Statistics (April 1, 1986 - March 31, 1987), they are the published Manitoba Health Services Commission records of registered persons as of June 1, 1986
  
• MH Dec-86 is the December 1986 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 1986 (Note: for 1986, the JUNE snapshot is not available at MCHP)
  
• MCHP RR is the MCHP 1997 Research Registry for persons covered as of June 1, 1986
  
• Census is the corresponding Canadian Census in 1986 as provided by the CARLS Consortium tapes at MCHP
  
  
• Percentages are given as % larger than Census

Table 2: 1991 Population Estimates (All as of June 1, 1991)

Age group	Source	Male	% Male	Female	% Female	Overall	% Overall
0-14	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	128055 128235 127984 127159 122410	4.6 4.8 4.6 3.9 .	121875 122037 121784 120995 116345	4.8 4.8 4.7 3.9 .	249930 250272 249768 248154 238755	4.7 4.8 4.6 3.9 .
15-24	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	84915 85177 84517 83670 81095	4.7 5.0 4.2 3.2 .	82133 82334 81722 80885 77635	5.8 6.0 5.3 4.2 .	167048 167511 166239 164555 158730	5.2 5.5 4.7 3.7 .
25-34	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	98500 99524 98386 97684 91860	7.2 8.3 7.1 6.3 .	96607 97663 96664 95824 90920	6.3 7.4 6.3 5.4 .	195107 197187 195050 193508 182780	6.7 7.9 6.7 5.7 .
35-44	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	84638 85207 84588 84149 80835	4.7 5.4 4.6 4.1 .	84026 84311 83808 83146 81090	3.6 4.0 3.4 2.5 .	168664 169518 168396 167295 161925	4.2 4.7 4.0 3.3 .
45-54	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	55801 56150 55909 55767 54380	2.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 .	55448 55715 55543 55201 54080	2.5 3.0 2.7 2.1 .	111249 111865 111452 110968 108460	2.6 3.1 2.8 2.3 .
55-64	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	46029 46191 46034 45803 44955	2.4 2.7 2.4 1.9 .	47718 47860 47709 47559 46760	2.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 .	93747 94051 93743 93362 91715	2.2 2.5 2.2 1.8 .
65+	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	61844 62370 62133 61627 61575	0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 .	85528 86114 85828 85690 84840	0.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 .	147372 148484 147961 147317 146415	0.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 .
Total	MHSC 91-92 MH Jun-91 MH Dec-91 MCHP RR Census	559782 562854 559551 555929 536910	4.3 4.8 4.2 3.5 .	573335 576034 573058 569300 551930	3.9 4.4 3.8 3.2 .	1133117 1138888 1132609 1125229 1088840	4.1 4.6 4.0 3.4 .


Note:


• MHSC 91-92 data is available in the Annual Statistics (April 1, 1991 - March 31, 1992), they are the published Manitoba Health Services Commission records of registered persons as of June 1, 1991
  
• MH Jun-91 is the June 1991 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 1991
  
• MH Dec-91 is the December 1991 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 1991
  
• MCHP RR is the MCHP 1997 Research Registry for persons covered as of June 1, 1991
  
• Census is the corresponding Canadian Census in 1991 as provided by the CARLS Consortium tapes at MCHP
  
  
• Percentages are given as % larger than Census

Table 3: 1996 Population Estimates (All as of June 1, 1996)

Age group	Source	Male	% Male	Female	% Female	Overall	% Overall
0-14	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	128000 127591 127821 127659 125360	2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 .	121768 121396 121577 121467 119250	2.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 .	249768 248987 249398 249126 244610	2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 .
15-24	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	80544 80471 80161 79584 78100	3.1 3.0 2.6 1.9 .	77724 77720 77411 77021 75680	2.7 2.7 2.3 1.8 .	158268 158191 157572 156605 153780	2.9 2.9 2.5 1.8 .
25-34	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	86540 86842 86368 85749 82105	5.4 5.8 5.2 4.4 .	86417 86842 86341 85970 82465	4.8 5.3 4.7 4.3 .	172957 173684 172709 171719 164570	5.1 5.5 4.9 4.3 .
35-44	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	90719 90778 90532 89969 87450	3.7 3.8 3.5 2.9 .	90063 90151 89857 89348 87800	2.6 2.7 2.3 1.8 .	180782 180920 180389 179317 175250	3.2 3.2 2.9 2.3 .
45-54	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	67950 68148 67989 67769 66260	2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 .	67835 67998 67853 67656 66465	2.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 .	135785 136146 135842 135425 132725	2.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 .
55-64	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	45837 45973 45864 45746 44720	2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 .	46926 47016 46932 46818 46055	1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 .	92763 92989 92796 92564 90775	2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 .
65+	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	64605 65183 64856 64582 63540	1.7 2.6 2.1 1.6 .	89715 90257 89969 89864 88625	1.2 1.8 1.5 1.4 .	154320 155440 154815 154446 152165	1.4 2.2 1.7 1.5 .
Total	MHSC 96-97 MH Jun-96 MH Dec-96 MCHP RR Census	564195 564986 563856 561058 547535	3.0 3.2 3.0 2.5 .	580448 581380 579930 578144 566365	2.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 .	1144643 1146366 1143521 1139202 1113898	2.8 2.9 2.7 2.3 .


Note:


• MHSC 96-97 data is available in the Annual Statistics (April 1, 1996 - March 31, 1997), they are the published Manitoba Health Services Commission records of registered persons as of June 1, 1996
  
• MH Jun-96 is the June 1996 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 1996
  
• MH Dec-96 is the December 1996 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 1996
  
• MCHP RR is the MCHP 1997 Research Registry for persons covered as of June 1, 1996
  
• Census is the corresponding Canadian Census in 1996 from the Data Liberation datasets at MCHP
  
  
• Percentages are given as % larger than Census

Table 4: 2001 Population Estimates (All as of June 1, 2001)

Age group	Source	Male	% Male	Female	% Female	Overall	% Overall
0-14	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	123157 123108 123140 123440 119715	2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 .	117174 117104 117135 117515 114000	2.8 2.7 2.8 3.1 .	240331 240212 240275 240955 233715	2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 .
15-24	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	80467 80924 80468 81479 77655	3.6 4.2 3.6 4.9 .	77903 78151 77840 78242 75615	3.0 3.4 2.9 3.5 .	158370 159075 158308 159721 153270	3.3 3.8 3.3 4.2 .
25-34	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	76285 76608 76097 77670 71370	6.9 7.3 6.6 8.8 .	76132 76486 76017 76595 71805	6.0 6.5 5.9 6.7 .	152417 153094 152114 154265 143175	6.5 6.9 6.2 7.7 .
35-44	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	92030 92500 92132 93117 88190	4.4 4.9 4.5 5.6 .	91535 91892 91620 91841 88940	2.9 3.3 3.0 3.3 .	183565 184392 183752 184958 177130	3.6 4.1 3.7 4.4 .
45-54	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	79368 79163 78978 79830 77255	2.7 2.5 2.2 3.3 .	79780 79583 79437 79867 78455	1.7 1.4 1.3 1.8 .	159148 158746 158415 159697 155710	2.2 1.9 1.7 2.6 .
55-64	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	50451 50879 50791 50728 49415	2.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 .	51412 51818 51731 51598 50745	1.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 .	101863 102697 102522 102326 100160	1.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 .
65+	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	66406 66570 66390 66317 66010	0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 .	90882 91023 90851 90795 90410	0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 .	157288 157593 157241 157112 156420	0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 .
Total	MHSC 01-02 MH Jun-01 MH Dec-01 MCHP RR Census	568164 569752 567996 572581 549600	3.4 3.7 3.3 4.2 .	584818 586057 584631 586453 569980	2.6 2.8 2.6 2.9 .	1152982 1155809 1152627 1159034 1119583	3.0 3.2 3.0 3.5 .


Note:


• MHSC 01-02 data is available in the Annual Statistics (April 1, 2001 - March 31, 2002), they are the published Manitoba Health Services Commission records of registered persons as of June 1, 2001
  
• MH Jun-01 is the June 2001 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 2001
  
• MH Dec-01 is the December 2001 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 2001
  
• MCHP RR is the MCHP 2008 Research Registry for persons covered as of June 1, 2001
  
• Census is the corresponding Canadian Census in 2001 from the Data Liberation datasets at MCHP
  
  
• Percentages are given as % larger than Census

Table 5: 2006 Population Estimates (All as of June 1, 2006)

Age group	Source	Male	% Male	Female	% Female	Overall	% Overall
0-14	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	118395 117889 118243 118545 115570	2.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 .	112701 112216 112560 112801 109605	2.8 2.4 2.7 2.9 .	231096 230105 230803 231346 225175	2.6 2.2 2.5 2.7 .
15-24	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	84369 84686 84257 85134 81730	3.2 3.6 3.1 4.2 .	81942 82110 81780 82222 79845	2.6 2.8 2.4 3.0 .	166311 166796 166037 167356 161575	2.9 3.2 2.8 3.6 .
25-34	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	75362 75552 75168 76687 69695	8.1 8.4 7.9 10.0 .	75832 75961 75662 76078 71275	6.4 6.6 6.2 6.7 .	151194 151513 150830 152765 140970	7.3 7.5 7.0 8.4 .
35-44	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	84145 84230 83981 85007 79870	5.4 5.5 5.1 6.4 .	84608 84782 84515 84799 81870	3.3 3.6 3.2 3.6 .	168753 169012 168496 169806 161740	4.3 4.5 4.2 5.0 .
45-54	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	87545 87616 87445 88010 85350	2.6 2.7 2.5 3.1 .	86977 87023 86890 87102 86225	0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 .	174522 174639 174335 175112 171575	1.7 1.8 1.6 2.1 .
55-64	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	62354 62489 62332 62547 61810	0.9 1.1 0.8 1.2 .	63500 63570 63460 63565 63665	-0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 .	125854 126059 125792 126112 125475	0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 .
65+	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	68819 69250 68861 68862 69250	-0.6 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 .	91908 92374 91950 91932 92625	-0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 .	160727 161624 160811 160794 161875	-0.7 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 .
Total	MHSC 06-07 MH Jun-06 MH Dec-06 MCHP RR Census	580989 581712 580287 584792 563275	3.1 3.3 3.0 3.8 .	597468 598036 596817 598499 585125	2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3 .	1178457 1179748 1177104 1183291 1148400	2.6 2.7 2.5 3.0 .


Note:


• MHSC 06-07 data is available in the Annual Statistics (April 1, 2006 - March 31, 2007), they are the published Manitoba Health Services Commission records of registered persons as of June 1, 2006
  
• MH Jun-06 is the June 2006 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 2006
  
• MH Dec-06 is the December 2006 MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage as of June 1, 2006
  
• MCHP RR is the MCHP 2008 Research Registry for persons covered as of June 1, 2006
  
• Census is the corresponding Canadian Census in 2006 from the Data Liberation datasets at MCHP
  
  
• Percentages are given as % larger than Census

Table 6: 0-14 Age Group Population Estimates - Comparison By Census Years - 1986 to 2006

Year	Gender	RR	Census	% Difference
1986	Male Female Overall	125924 119517 245441	120500 114500 235000	4.5 4.4 4.4
1991	Male Female Overall	127159 120995 248154	122410 116345 238755	3.9 3.9 3.9
1996	Male Female Overall	127659 121467 249126	125360 119250 244610	1.8 1.9 1.8
2001	Male Female Overall	123440 117515 240955	119715 114000 233715	3.1 3.1 3.1
2006	Male Female Overall	118545 112801 231346	115570 109605 225175	2.6 2.9 2.7

Table 7: Total Population Estimates - Comparison By Census Years - 1986 to 2006

Year	Gender	RR	Census	% Difference
1986	Male Female Overall	538635 550147 1088782	517600 530785 1048125	4.1 3.6 3.9
1991	Male Female Overall	555929 569300 1125229	536910 551930 1088840	3.5 3.2 3.4
1996	Male Female Overall	561058 578144 1139202	547535 566365 1113898	2.5 2.1 2.3
2001	Male Female Overall	572581 586453 1159034	549600 569980 1119583	4.2 2.9 3.5
2006	Male Female Overall	584792 598499 1183291	563275 585125 1148400	3.8 2.3 3.0

Limitations

• 1986 falls within the two year limit for "Cannot Locate" following the revisions to registrations and PHIN in 1984/01 - we expect some cases were believed absent but the dates of coverage extended to June, 1986.
  
  
• 1996 falls AFTER a major mailing related to the Drug Program Information Network (DPIN) system and the release of personal PHINs to the public. We expect the registries to be reasonably accurate (for a short time) but some of the "cannot locate group" and other non-resident registrants will persist and show coverage on June 1, 1996.
  
  
• It is difficult to present residence areas from both registries and census in a single table - the discrepancies in coding disguise or exaggerate apparent discrepancies in N.

Comparisons

Each MH registration snapshot for persons having coverage is limited in accuracy due to underreporting of newborns, exclusions of new arrivals in MB and cancellations between March and June. Overall, expect a net over-counting due to timing of these files. Due to the application of all available information including retroactive cancellations, deaths in institutions, cross-references among registries, and inclusion of personal care data, the results from the research registry are expected to be better than either snapshot.